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§1 深度学习是否已经收敛?
1. Has Deep Learning Converged?
1.1 数据、统计模型与因果性
1.1 Data, Statistical Models and Causality
A fascinating hypothesis is that human and animal intelligence could be explained by a few principles (rather than an encyclopedic list of heuristics). If that hypothesis was correct, we could more easily both understand our own intelligence and build intelligent machines.
一个引人入胜的假说是:人类与动物的智能可以由少数几条原则来解释(而非一部百科全书式的启发式清单)。如果这一假说成立,我们就能更容易地理解自身的智能,也更容易建造智能机器。
Just like in physics, the principles themselves would not be sufficient to predict the behavior of complex systems like brains, and substantial computation might be needed to simulate human-like intelligence.
就像物理学一样,原则本身并不足以预测大脑这类复杂系统的行为,要模拟类人智能可能需要大规模的计算。
This hypothesis would suggest that studying the kind of inductive biases that humans and animals exploit could help both clarify these principles and provide inspiration for AI research and neuroscience theories.
这一假说意味着:研究人类和动物所利用的那类归纳偏置(inductive biases),既能帮助阐明这些原则,也能为 AI 研究与神经科学理论提供灵感。
Deep learning already exploits several key inductive biases, and this work considers a larger list, focusing on those which concern mostly higher-level and sequential conscious processing.
深度学习已经利用了几项关键的归纳偏置,而本工作考察一张更长的清单,聚焦于主要涉及高层级、序列化的意识加工(higher-level and sequential conscious processing)的那些偏置。
The objective of clarifying these particular principles is that they could potentially help us build AI systems benefiting from humans' abilities in terms of flexible out-of-distribution and systematic generalization, which is currently an area where a large gap exists between state-of-the-art machine learning and human intelligence.
阐明这些特定原则的目标在于:它们可能帮助我们构建受益于人类能力的 AI 系统——尤其是灵活的分布外泛化(out-of-distribution generalization)与系统性泛化(systematic generalization),而这正是当前最先进的机器学习与人类智能之间存在巨大鸿沟的领域。
主体:深度学习真的「收敛」了吗?
Has Deep Learning Converged?
Is 100% accuracy on the test set enough? Many machine learning systems have achieved excellent accuracy across a variety of tasks, yet the question of whether their reasoning or judgment is correct has come under question, and answers seem to be wildly inconsistent, depending on the task, architecture, training data, and interestingly, the extent to which test conditions match the training distribution.
测试集上 100% 的准确率够吗?许多机器学习系统在各类任务上都取得了优异的准确率,然而它们的推理或判断是否真的正确这个问题却被提了出来;答案似乎极不一致,取决于任务、架构、训练数据,而有趣的是,还取决于测试条件与训练分布的匹配程度。
Have the main principles required for deep learning to achieve human-level performance been discovered, with the main remaining obstacle being to scale up? Or do we need to follow a completely different research direction not built on the principles discovered with deep learning, in order to achieve the kind of cognitive competence displayed by humans?
深度学习达到人类水平所需的主要原则是否已经被发现,剩下的主要障碍只是规模放大?还是说,要达到人类所展现的那种认知能力,我们需要走一条完全不同的、不建立在深度学习已有原则之上的研究方向?
Our goal here is to better understand the gap between current deep learning and human cognitive abilities so as to help answer these questions and suggest research directions for deep learning with the aim of bridging the gap towards human-level AI.
我们这里的目标,是更好地理解当前深度学习与人类认知能力之间的鸿沟,以帮助回答这些问题,并为深度学习指出研究方向的建议,目标是弥合通向人类级 AI 的差距。
Our main hypothesis is that deep learning succeeded in part because of a set of inductive biases (preferences, priors or assumptions), but that additional ones should be included in order to go from good in-distribution generalization in highly supervised learning tasks (or where strong and dense rewards are available), such as object recognition in images, to strong out-of-distribution generalization and transfer learning to new tasks with low sample complexity (few examples needed to generalize well).
我们的主要假说是:深度学习之所以成功,部分原因是一组归纳偏置(偏好、先验或假设);但要实现从「强监督学习任务中良好的分布内泛化」(如图像目标识别),到「低样本复杂度下强大的分布外泛化与新任务迁移学习」,还需要纳入额外的归纳偏置
To make that concrete, we consider some of the inductive biases humans may exploit in conscious thought using highly sequential cognition operating at the level of conscious processing, and review some early work exploring these "high-level cognitive inductive priors" in deep learning.
为把这一点具体化,我们考察人类在意识思维中可能利用的若干归纳偏置——这些思维在意识加工层面进行高度序列化的认知——并回顾深度学习领域探索这些「高层级认知归纳先验」的早期工作。
We use the term high-level to talk about variables that are manipulated at the conscious level of processing and are thus generally verbalizable. However, humans can consciously focus attention on low-level or intermediate-level features, e.g., by describing an odd-coloured pixel, not just very abstract concepts like objects or social situations.
我们用「高层级」一词来指在意识加工层面被操纵、因而通常可言语化(verbalizable)的变量。然而,人类也能有意识地把注意力聚焦在低层级或中间层级的特征上——例如描述一个颜色异常的像素——而不只是物体或社会情境这类非常抽象的概念。
We argue that the deep learning progression from MLPs to convnets to transformers has in many ways been an (incomplete) progression towards the original goals of deep learning, i.e., to enable the discovery of a hierarchy of representations, with the most abstract ones, often associated with language, at the top.
我们主张:深度学习从 MLP 到卷积网络再到 Transformer 的演进,在许多方面都只是朝着深度学习最初目标的一次(不完整的)前进——即实现表征的层级结构发现,其中最高层的抽象表征通常与语言相关。
Note however, that although language may give us a view on system 2, these abilities are likely to pre-exist language as there is evidence of surprisingly strong forms of on-the-fly reasoning in some non-human animals, like corvids.
但请注意:尽管语言能让我们窥见系统 2(system 2),这些能力很可能在语言之前就已存在——因为证据显示某些非人类动物(如鸦科鸟类)拥有令人惊讶的强大即时推理(on-the-fly reasoning)能力。
Our arguments suggest that while deep learning brought remarkable progress, it needs to be extended in qualitative and not just quantitative ways: larger and more diverse datasets and more computing resources are important but insufficient without additional inductive biases.
我们的论证表明:尽管深度学习带来了显著的进步,但它需要在质的层面而非仅仅量的层面加以扩展——更大更多样的数据集和更多算力固然重要,但若无额外的归纳偏置,仍然不够。
We make the case that evolutionary forces, the interactions between multiple agents, the non-stationary and competition systems put pressure on the learning machinery to achieve the kind of flexibility, robustness and ability to adapt quickly which humans seem to have when they are faced with new environments but needs to be improved with deep learning.
我们论证:进化力量、多智能体交互、非平稳与竞争性系统,都对学习机制施加压力,要求它具备人类面对新环境时似乎拥有的那种灵活性、鲁棒性与快速适应能力——而这种能力需要在深度学习基础上加以改进。
The sought-after inductive biases should thus especially help AI to progress on these fronts. In addition to thinking about the learning and sample complexity advantage of these inductive biases, this paper links them with knowledge representation in neural networks, with the idea that by decomposing knowledge into its stable parts (like causal mechanisms) and volatile parts (random variables), and factorizing knowledge in small and somewhat independent pieces that can be recomposed dynamically as needed (to reason, imagine or explain at an explicit and verbalizable level), one may achieve the kind of systematic generalization which humans enjoy and is common in natural language.
因此,我们所追求的归纳偏置尤其应帮助 AI 在这些方面取得进展。除了思考这些归纳偏置在学习与样本复杂度上的优势,本文还将它们与神经网络中的知识表示联系起来:把知识分解为稳定部分(如因果机制)与易变部分(随机变量),并把知识分解成小而相对独立的片段、可按需动态重组(以便在显式、可言语化的层面推理、想象或解释),就可能实现人类所享有、且在自然语言中普遍存在的系统性泛化
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